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Bitcoin's Correlation to Tech Stocks About to Change?The above chart shows the correlation between Bitcoin ( BTC ) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ). The correlation between these two is the highest ever . See the chart below for a closer look. For the stats nerds out there, here are the current correlation values between BTC and QQQ (as measured by using monthly closing prices with a 20-period look back): r value is 0.936, r-squared is 0.7916, p value is 0. This extreme correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 is unlikely to last much longer. Correlations between assets tend to oscillate over time. Therefore, this extremely positive correlation is likely to oscillate down soon, which will have the effect of weakening the correlation between Bitcoin and Nasdaq 100, or in a more drastic scenario, turn the positive correlation into a negative one. If the correlation between BTC and QQQ does in fact weaken or turn negative, then it must also be true that both assets cannot continue their strong rallies at the same time. So we're left with an important question: Which asset will outperform the other if the perfect positive correlation ends? We can use a ratio chart to extrapolate the answer: the BTC/QQQ ratio chart. So let's look at that chart. In the chart above, we see the price of Bitcoin on the left and Bitcoin's performance relative to QQQ on the right. We can see that even though Bitcoin has been on a bull run, it has already rolled over to the downside relative to the performance of QQQ. When we look at the Stochastic RSI oscillator, as shown in the chart below, we see confirmation that Bitcoin is potentially beginning to oscillate back down relative to its performance to QQQ on the weekly chart. However, look at what happens when we examine the monthly chart. The exact opposite appears to be true. (See the chart below) In the monthly chart of BTC/QQQ, Bitcoin is just beginning a major oscillation up. What we're probably seeing is the monthly candle of BTC/QQQ creating a lower wick, which is why it appears that the weekly BTC/QQQ chart is oscillating down. If we zoom out even further -- to the quarterly (or 3-month) chart -- we see even further confirmation that Bitcoin is set to outperform the Nasdaq 100. (See the chart below) In the chart above we see a perfect log growth curve of Bitcoin relative to the Nasdaq 100, with bullish reversal candlesticks beginning to form on the quarterly timeframe. We also see the Stochastic RSI ready to oscillate back up, meaning Bitcoin is poised to begin a period of outperformance relative to tech stocks on the higher timeframes. Other charts lead us to a similar conclusion. In the yearly chart of QQQ/SPY, shown below, we see that the Nasdaq 100 is set to underperform the S&P 500 for the long term. This suggests that the current rally in the Nasdaq 100 stocks is potentially a bull trap or a lower timeframe counter-trend. As the Nasdaq 100 is set to begin to underperform the S&P 500, the S&P 500 itself is showing downward momentum on its yearly chart. If this downward momentum sustains to the close of 2023, it will mark an incredibly rare, and also quite bearish, signal for both indices. These, and other, higher timeframe charts are explained in more depth in my post below about the coming period of stagflation. In summary, virtually all of the higher timeframe charts indicate that the period of limitless monetary easing is over, and we've entered into a new supercycle wherein the price of money will remain some degree higher. So it seems that Bitcoin continues to win. As the stock market indices break out and create what time will likely prove to be another bull trap, Bitcoin is likely on a path toward more sustained bullishness than equities. In the face of stagflation, equities suffer from both a declining money supply (as the central banks fight inflation) and declining productivity. Although Bitcoin is not immune to similar declines, its perpetual scarcity may provide a unique tailwind during the coming period of stagflation.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by SpyMasterTrades
54
$XLC a bottom bounce and an interesting observation. Happy Labor Day Weekend Chart Watchers. Its been awhile since I last posted anything but I figured this would make for some good conversation. The Communications sector has been the worst performer YTD of all the SPDR sectors. This weekly chart shows that it might be at an inflection point. First, lets discuss the chart. I am a long term investor. I like to view things in terms of weeks, months and years. This is the chart I use 99% of the time. The chart is a weekly candle chart utilizing a 10 Period EMA moving average and a 40 period SMA moving average. These are my primary trend following tools. My primary oscillators are the RSI and the Mansfield RSI. I'm sure everyone is familiar with the RSI indicator. For those of you not familiar with the Mansfield RSI it is comparison tool with a 52 period moving average overlaid. Basically it is a ratio chart turned into an indicator and made popular by the Stage Analysis Method developed by Stan Weinstein. Most investors use "ABC/SPY" as their ratio comparison chart. I use ITOT as I like to compare the stocks I am looking at against the entire market, you get the idea. XLC is roughly down 30% YTD. It is the 5th Largest Weighting in the S&P, not an insignificant sector. This chart shows the following: a sector clearly in a downtrend as it is below both moving averages. a weekly candle testing the support created by its previous closing low. As the sector made new lows from March through June, RSI clearly bottomed. The sector made a low in June and then tested its low again at the end of August (to the penny I might add). As this happened RSI swung higher and created a positive divergence. Very interesting! I think this sector is setting up for a bounce higher going into the end if the year. The Mansfield indicator is still showing a sector suffering from underperformance. If you are someone looking for relative strength to confirm absolute strength then look for the Mansfield indicator to take out the 0.63 level. Observations: if the worst performing sector of the year holds its lows while the overall market is under pressure does the S&P trade below its June lows? If the worst performing sector turns around and swings higher, what is the overall market doing in that scenario? Its probably moving higher. Obviously if this sector breaks lower then the June lows on the S&P are most likely taken out. However, the evidence as I see it today argues for lows to hold and for a swing higher into the end of the year. Happy Charting!!! Thanks for reading. Good luck to all!
AMEX:XLCLong
by Breakout_Charts
2
Utilities Are Sending Warning SignsThe chart above is a weekly chart of the entire price history of the PHLX Utility Sector (UTY). (The PHLX part of the name is just an historical reference to the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, which is now part of the Nasdaq.) I chose this specific ticker over other utility tickers like XLU or VPU because it provides more historical data and therefore a more powerful statistical analysis. The channel that you see is a regression channel. A regression channel shows how far above or below the mean price is currently trading. For more details about this channel, you can read the statistics note at the end of this post. Here are some warning signs that this chart is showing: 1. Utilities are outperforming the broader market. See the chart below. In the above chart, you can see that the utility sector ETF (XLU) just posted a new all-time high this past Friday. Utilities typically outperform the broader market in the late phase of the business cycle right before (and during) a recession. See below. Credit: Fidelity Investments In the main chart above (reposted below) we see that in 2022 price hit the 2nd standard deviation above the mean for the first time since 2007. Price is currently continuing to move higher and it is very possible that it can overthrow the 2nd standard deviation again. This is sending a warning sign that investors are shifting money into utilities because they believe that we are in the end stage of the economic cycle. 2. Utilities are ripping higher at the same time that tech is ripping higher. This is another warning sign. See below chart. This is somewhat of a nuanced point: Although tech and utilities are not necessarily negatively correlated and can both rise at the same time, they rarely both outperform the broader market (S&P 500) at the same time as they are doing now. To get to the bottom of what's going on, we should analyze a ratio chart between the two assets. See the chart below. This chart suggests that tech (QQQ) is rallying because it is testing resistance levels. Tech's performance relative to utilities has fallen below the monthly exponential moving averages (known as the EMA ribbon). It has likely become trapped below the EMA ribbon as it did in 2000. We can be fairly safe in making this conclusion because of the Ichimoku Cloud is forming an ominous coverage (resistance) on the weekly ratio chart similar to 2000 {for this I used the Nasdaq (IXIC) and the PHLX Utility Sector (UTY) for the comparison only because they have enough historical data to form the Ichimoku Cloud for 2000}. This is a warning sign that tech's rally is merely a bear market rally (or a rally in which resistance levels are retested but price fails to break through). 3. When I analyze utilities relative to the S&P 500 on the yearly chart two additional warning signs appear. See chart below. First, the yearly stochastic RSI shows that we approaching full oscillation down. The K line has reached oversold territory and has already begun to move up toward the D line. This could mean that utilities are gearing up to outperform the broader market for years to come. Of note, since this a relative chart, it does not necessarily mean that the price in utilities will increase over the period of outperformance, it may merely decline by less than the S&P 500 if both are falling. Second, the yearly candlesticks fully retraced to the low seen in 1999, right before the Dotcom Bubble burst. Although the SPX can squeeze out one last period of outperformance (one last bull run), the chart is sending a warning sign that this period of outperformance may be coming to an end. Further, the fact these two factors are coming together right as utility prices reach their 2nd standard deviation above the mean, in my opinion, presents a warning of what's to come for the broader market. So much confirmation is quite ominous. 4. Although, utilities are sending a signal that they may potentially outperform the broader market for years to come. When you observe the actual charts of utility components (companies that comprise the utility index), some of the charts are also extremely overbought on the highest timeframes and vulnerable to collapse, or at best stagnation. Take for example the utility company Next Era Energy (NEE), shown below. The regression channel in the chart above shows that, during the era of quantitative easing, NEE's price soared over the years to the highest levels that price can typically achieve from a probabilistic standpoint. If some utility companies are so over-extended to the upside and are vulnerable to collapse or stagnation, then even utilities may fail to serve as a safe haven if the stock market collapses. This is reflective that in the face of quantitative tightening all risk assets are vulnerable to major declines. My thoughts on how to trade this (not a recommendation): Personally, I'm ambivalent about entering a long position in utilities. Although they may outperform the broader market, since the price is already near the 2nd standard deviation above the mean, and at least some utility components are way overextended, utilities do not present an ideal risk-to-reward trade set up. Nonetheless, if I do end up taking a position in utilities, I will definitely use a trailing stop loss on my position. I see a better option in U.S. treasuries (e.g. TLT). Treasury rates typically go down, and therefore prices go up, during recessions. From a price regression perspective, treasuries are trading at historical lows, and therefore the upside potential is much better. I plan to accumulate treasuries when they reach their terminal rate again or after the weekly chart consolidates, whichever comes first. With that said, not even trading treasuries is risk-free in this unprecedented time of quantitative tightening and persistently high inflation. If inflation persists, the yields on the 10-year U.S. treasuries may need to rise dramatically higher to definitively squash it. The yearly stochastic RSI for treasuries is providing a tailwind for higher yields over the years. This in turn could bring down the price of treasuries, thereby making not even treasuries fully safe in this new supercycle characterized by persistent inflation and slowing real GDP growth (i.e. stagflation). Counterintuitively, it's a great time to be a trader as profit will likely only be made by those who constantly shift money into outperforming assets dynamically using charts and technical analysis. Statistics note: The upper and lower channel lines are 2 standard deviations above and below the mean, respectively. A total of 1,821 data points (total amount of weekly candles) formed this channel. The Pearson score is .95676. This regression line is log-based. Although the data may not be normally distributed, I have found that these regression channels are nonetheless helpful in determining what's more likely than not. The channel lines are not drawn by me, they are automatically generated by the indicator based on the data points, so there is no bias in how they are drawn. I simply apply log-linear regression to the entire price history. This channel is different than a price channel in that the lines are not exact points of resistance or support. Price can easily overthrow or underthrow the channel lines and yet the channel is still completely valid. The channel merely represents probability which helps me base my trades. The channel is not static and changes dynamically with price action, though it becomes more and more static with the introduction of more and more data, which is why I only use regression channels on assets with a lot of data points. Finally, I am not a statistician and do not intend to hold myself out as an expert on statistical analysis. Additional note: Some of my prior posts back in May and June called for bullishness in tech stocks. Those posts were for the intermediate term (months). Although I saw bullishness for tech in the intermediate term then, in the long term the picture is quite bearish.
TVC:UTY
by SpyMasterTrades
15
Put Call Ratio/Volatility Skew CurveIn most mature markets, options can be a major indication on price direction, or at least the markets expectations of future market direction. One way of looking at this could be through the Call/Put Ratio. The ratio is a simple measure of how many call options are being traded relative to put options. As you can see from the chart above (www.sk3w.co) the peak of this ratio was ~16 on 2/2/2019, with another peak on 12/6/2018 of ~9.5. When looking at these dates respectively on the BTC price chart below, these heavy Call buying days were precursors to a $800 rally over a 22-day period, and a $1,000 rally over an 8-day period. As you can see from the Call/Put Ratio chart, today the ratio is roughly around the average of 1.95. Another good way of looking at options to get an indication on future price direction would be through the Volatility Smile or Volatile Skew. This skew will show the sentiment on the demand to buy or sell calls vs. puts. When a market has positive call skew, the calls will have a more expensive ‘implied vol’, and when the market has positive put skew, the puts will have the more expensive ‘implied vol’. Below is the Volatility Skew Curve for March, June, and September BTC options. While analyzing this chart over the last week after this volatile price action, we have not seen a major shift one way or the other in regards to this skew. If BTC were to be exiting this BEAR market, we would expect to see Call Skew form within this chart. If you are of the opinion BTC will rally, then buying call volatility would be a smart play. If the $4,200 RESISTANCE that has formed in BTC breaks to the upside, we would expect calls to go bid and see call skew form in the chart. As for now, through this analysis, we seem to be stuck in this $3,200-$4,200 range and therefore remain BEARISH. The ‘trend is our friend’, and will stick to this outlook until forced to do otherwise. To see our full article with all charts and figures attached, please check out: medium.com
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by BitOoda_LLC
$TOTAL2 vs BTC shows momentum with $TOTAL2 nearing ATHWhere is the Alt season? CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 is the best indicator of the Altcoin rally which does not include CRYPTOCAP:BTC and Stablecoins. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 peaked at 1.7 T $ in the last cycle. In this cycle we are very close to our target. But this outperformance can only happen if CRYPTOCAP:ETH breaks out above its previous cycle highs. Please visit my view on CRYPTOCAP:ETH and CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D in this blog. CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D : Cycle tops are in. CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D : Bounce form the all-time lows for CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView Our target is 9K on $ETH. So if this happens then the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 will break out of the Cup and handle formation we have been tracking since months on $TOTAL2. As the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 is trying to break out of its ATH the ratio of CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 vs CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also making a reversal towards the upside. In the chart below I tried an unorthodox method to plot the Fib retracement levels of a downward slopping pattern joining the top of the lower lows in the ratio charts. Here we can clearly see that in this cycle it bottomed out at somewhere near to 0.786 level. Just extrapolating and following the pattern of lower lows and lower levels on the Fib retracement level I can predict to a certain degree of confidence that the ratio of CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 vs BTC can top out at 1.1 during this cycle. And the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 might top out @ 2.6 T – 2.7 T $ which indicates a 60% rally to the next Fib retracement level on $TOTAL2. Verdict : CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 vs BTC chart is on rally mode. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 target remains 2.7 T $ and CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 vs BTC ratio target 1.1.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by RabishankarBiswal
Gold | Long Bias | VWAP Zone | (June 8, 2025)Gold | Long Bias | SPX & Silver Ratio Support + VWAP Zone | (June 8, 2025) 1️⃣ Insight Summary: Gold is holding strong at a key value area high while the gold/SPX and silver/gold ratios suggest we're entering a new phase of consolidation before the next leg up. Despite some calling for downside, the technicals point toward accumulation and a potential breakout. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long Entry Zone: Current VWAP + value area high support zone (around $3,235) Stop Loss: Slightly below the VWAP consolidation range TP1: $3,316 TP2: $3,400 (final target for this wave) 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ Support Zone: We’re bouncing off a strong area of confluence — VWAP + value area high. This has held well and suggests accumulation rather than distribution. 📊 Gold/SPX Ratio: Shows gold is holding or gaining relative to equities — signaling investors are hedging risk and positioning for possible volatility or correction in SPX. ⚖️ Silver/Gold Ratio: Points to silver undervaluation — and historically, when this ratio tightens, silver often outperforms in the later phases of a gold rally. 📉 Expectations: A slight dip or fakeout to trap shorts is still possible before continuation. Watch closely for how price behaves during this potential flush. 💡 Alternative Play: You mentioned it — silver could be the better value buy in this scenario. Same macro thesis, but higher upside % if the ratio rebalances. 4️⃣ Follow-Up: Monitoring for confirmation of support at VWAP and watching both ratio charts. If silver continues to strengthen relative to gold, I may scale more into silver positions over gold. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Risk_Adj_Return
Home Prices Peaking Relative To Household IncomeHere is a simple ratio chart of Home price/Household Income, YOY rate of change overlaid with plain home prices. A few things we can learn from this chart. 1. A 4 to 5 X ratio used to be the bottom and top for home prices relative to household income. the ratio in 2000 after decades of stability rose to 6X income. Today we have spiked to 7.7X income. Clearly, homes have gotten much more expensive over time. 2. However a good time to buy has been around 5X income. Not necessarily a drop in home prices. It helps to understand VALUE as a Ratio rather than price. Most typically think of an arbitrary number and miss out on a great opportunity to buy bc it did not hit their magic number. 5. YOY spike in home prices/income ratio gives a nice ballpark idea of when the ratio is topping out. 4. Prices can rise over time and still end up with a great buying opportunity if people better understand VALUE as a ratio rather than price. Obviously, there are many more factors to consider when buying or investing in RE. I am no real estate expert. But there is much to learn from this chart as to how to think about VALUE in general. Having said all that, I am willing to guess that home prices relative to income have peaked and will likely start to reverse here in the near future.
FRED:ASPUSShort
by RealMacro
2
QQQ vs S&P500Today we are looking at a ratio chart from TradFi. We are plotting the ratio of Nasdaq100 vs S&P 500. Even if both charts observed separately tell us the same story. That we are in a bullish uptrend on the daily chart for the past 1 year. But the ratio chart clearly shows Nasdaq100 peaked out relative to S&P 500 on Aug 2024 just prior to the unravelling of Yen carry trade. Since then, the ratio has not broken to the upside and registered an ATH even if the tech stocks have been doing exceptionally well recently. The ratio of QQQ vs SPX is within a local uptrend but still within the upward sloping Fib Retracement level between 0 and 0.618. The tech heavy QQQ can and will claim leadership once we break out of the range in the upward sloping Fib retracement level and break above the 0.618 levels.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by RabishankarBiswal
Total2 Market Cap vs BTC Market CapToday we are looking at ratio charts. We plot the ratio of Total 2 Market Cap (Total Crypto Market Cap excluding BTC) to BTC Market CAP. This ratio chart is making new lower highs this BTC Halving cycle. There seems to be no bounce from the lows and Alt coin season seems to be elusive. As we move towards the end of the halving cycle there is very little time left for this Alt season. To reach the previous cycle highs of 1.5 in the chart the Alt Coins have to more than double from here and BTC must remain at this price for the rest of the cycle. For this the total Crypto market cap must reach almost 5 trillion USD, which remains unlikely. A better estimate will be the ratio of Total 2 Market Cap vs BTC Market Cap ratio reaches 1.09 which will be 0.618 Fib retracement level. This 0.618 fib retracement repeats in many instances. The same is true for BTC.D. What do you think?
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by RabishankarBiswal
The TradingView Show: Post-Election Trades with TradeStationJoin us for our recurring series as we dive deep into the latest market movements, emerging trends, and key financial news with @TradeStation. This monthly show is designed to keep traders and investors up to date on the developments that truly move the markets. Don’t forget to explore our comprehensive video library on our profile—scroll back to catch past episodes, and follow our TradingView account to stay in the loop. In this episode, we’ll provide actionable insights and educational resources for new traders, including charting tips and an introduction to market dynamics. Here’s what we’ll be covering this time: - A detailed analysis of NVIDIA’s earnings and what they mean for tech and semiconductor stocks - How rising interest rates are influencing market sentiment and trading strategies - Post-election trades: positioning for the rest of the year - End-of-year trading opportunities: sectors and stocks to watch - A look at the energy sector and how oil prices are affecting energy stocks - Insights into the banking sector’s recent breakout and its potential impact - Key ratio charts to help inform your strategy - And much more! Our live show airs monthly, welcoming traders of all experience levels to join the conversation, ask questions, and gain insights into what’s moving the markets. We encourage you to engage—leave comments, share your thoughts, and spread the word with fellow traders! This show is sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation pursues a singular vision to offer the ultimate online trading platform and services for self-directed traders and investors across the equities, equity index options, futures, and futures options markets. Equities, equities options, and commodity futures products and services are offered by TradeStation Securities Inc., member NYSE, FINRA, CME, and SIPC. See below: www.tradestation.com www.tradestation.com
TVC:RUT
by TradingView
1
The TradingView Show: Charting Big Moves with TradeStationJoin us for our recurring series as we breakdown in great detail the latest market movements, emerging trends, and critical financial news with @TradeStation. This monthly show is meticulously crafted to keep traders informed about the developments that truly impact the markets. Explore our comprehensive video library on our profile—just scroll back to catch up on past episodes. And remember to follow our @TradingView account to ensure you never miss a show. For our new traders, this episode will provide actionable insights, educational resources on charting, and a robust introduction to market dynamics. In this episode, we’ll cover the following topics: - Top-down analysis for informed decision-making - Essential crude oil charts and their implications for energy stocks - Insights into small-cap trends - A deep dive into semiconductor stocks like ASML and NVDA - The recent breakout in the banking sector - An analysis of ratio charts for strategic positioning - And much more! Our show goes live each month, welcoming traders and investors of all levels to join the discussion, ask questions, and gain insights into what’s moving the markets. We encourage you to engage—leave comments, share your thoughts, and spread the word with your friends. This show is sponsored by TradeStation. TradeStation pursues a singular vision to offer the ultimate online trading platform and services for self-directed traders and investors across the equities, equity index options, futures, and futures options markets. Equities, equities options, and commodity futures products and services are offered by TradeStation Securities Inc., member NYSE, FINRA, CME, and SIPC. See below: www.tradestation.com www.tradestation.com Thank you for tuning in!
NASDAQ:AAPL
by TradingView
Gold vs the 10yr yieldThis is a ratio chart. Gold is on top 10 year Yield is on bottom in the middle you can see the ratio between gold prices and the 10yr yield rising and falling. As you can tell, when the ratio reaches a low, gold prices tend to rise and yields tend to fall. Vice/versa when the ratio is at a high, Gold prices tend to fall, and yields tend to rise. Of course the ratio chart is not "CAUSING" the prices to rise or fall. In my humble opinion, we are relatively close to the long term low point on the ratio chart. Meaning that either gold prices should rise and or yields should fall, and or both maybe... Barrons has recently published a piece saying that rising supply of gold could contribute to prices ending the year around 2100. usd This would be a drop in price, and doesn't fit in with my narrative. It might be interesting to see how this ratio plays out, and perhaps it will help you form a bias for your next Gold trade!
AMEX:GLDLong
by Sacyourking
BITCOIN The Golden 51%-49% Ratio is back! Is this the next top?After the interest that the revised version of my Logarithmic Channel model attracted, I thought I'd extend it by adding a few more elements, most notable of which Tradingshot's very own Golden 51%-49% Ratio! Basically I've been asked continuously to make an update on that legendary chart, so here is an extension, though I promise I will also make an update with the original minimal pattern. For those who don't know how this Ratio works, it basically suggests that on each Cycle, the phase from the Bottom to the Halving is 51% of the whole Bull Cycle while the rest (Halving to Top) consists the 49%. Practically it claims that the Halving is roughly at the middle of each Bull Cycle. As the Logarithmic Growth Channel suggest that November 2022 was the absolute bottom of the 2022 Bear Cycle, we can now use the next Halving (number 4) and apply the 51%-49% Golden Ratio. Halving 4 is projected to be on May 26 2024 and based on the Ratio that puts the High of Cycle 5 near the end of November 2025. On every Cycle, once the Bear Cycle Lower Highs trend-line broke, BTC started officially the Rise, which after the Halving turns parabolic. Do you think a $200k Bitcoin realistic during Cycle 5 based on the combination of this two patterns? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by TradingShot
36
SPY Analysis (November)This is an analysis of the S&P 500 ETF ( SPY ) for November 2022. Overview The S&P 500 remains in a downtrend. While price bounced off of the 200-week moving average, there is a significant amount of overhead resistance. There has not yet been full backwardation in the VIX term structure that could lend credibility to the idea that a cycle low has been achieved. Cycle lows typically do not occur until after interest rates begin to decline. Therefore, so long as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, which reduces the supply of money, it is unlikely that the stock market can create new all-time highs. The yield curve has inverted to an extreme degree. A yield curve inversion reflects a contraction in the credit market. Since credit is the main driver of the money supply and economic activity, an inverted yield curve is a warning sign of future economic decline. As the unemployment rate rises and corporate earnings decline, the stock market is likely to face a prolonged period of headwinds. Due to persistent supply issues in a deglobalizing world, commodity inflation is likely to persist even as demand cools, thus creating a difficult situation whereby, for the first time in a half-century, central banks' ability to increase the money supply to stimulate the economy is substantially limited. The global economy is likely entering into a new supercycle where interest rates remain elevated or increase over the long term. This stagflationary environment is likely to stunt the S&P 500's growth prospects for the long term. Companies with negative cash flow and no pathway to profitability are likely to be severely affected. In the worst-case scenario, commodity hyperinflation, debt crises, and a monetary crisis are all possible in the years ahead. Nonetheless, despite deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, plenty of great investment opportunities abound. Bullish post-election seasonality may carry the entire U.S. stock market higher, especially as market participants perceive a pivot in monetary policy. Overnight repo action hint that the Federal Reserve may have already stopped draining liquidity out of the banking system. As the world transitions to sustainable energy, companies that invest in sustainable infrastructure are likely to move substantially higher. Emerging markets, especially India and Latin America, are likely to be beneficiaries of flaring tensions between superpowers. It is during market turmoil that well-planned, risk-managed investments can prove most lucrative in the long term. Market bottoms form when all market participants become bearish and no sellers are left. Quarterly Expected Move There is a 68% chance that SPX will close the year within this price range. High price: 4047 Low price: 3125 For those who do not already know, the quarterly expected move is the predicted range within which price is expected to remain at the close of the current quarter (3-month period). It is calculated using the implied volatility from the asset's options chain after the close of the prior quarter but before the market opens for the current quarter. For more information on how to calculate these values, please see the link at the bottom of this post. Volatility & Seasonality As noted above, there has not yet been complete VIX term structure backwardation. VIX term structure backwardation reflects that the market is pricing in decreasing volatility in the future. The VIX term structure usually goes into complete backwardation at cycle bottoms, as this structure reflects the type of capitulation that major stock market bottoms typically exhibit. The VIX term structure currently shows that the market believes that higher volatility is to come (in 2023). Fibonacci Levels On the daily chart, price bounced at the 50% retracement level (Fibonacci levels drawn from the bottom in October to the most recent high on November 1st). If price can hold the 50% retracement level this shows relative bullishness. Price also continues to cluster around the 3rd Fibonacci spiral that I discussed in my prior posts (see links to related ideas below). Regression Channel Regression simply refers to the idea that price tends to revert back (or regress) to its mean for a given timeframe. Regression channels can help us identify which trend is governing price action. These channels can give insight into trend reversals. Since the start of 2022, the daily regression channel has been downsloping. Price has recently bounced off the mean, despite downward oscillator momentum. This reflects bullishness. Weekly Chart In the below weekly chart, we can see the EMA ribbon has completely inverted. The EMA ribbon is a collection of exponential moving averages that act as resistance when price reaches it from below and support when price reaches it from above. The last time the EMA ribbon completely inverted was during the Great Recession. In general, the farther the S&P 500 falls, the wider the EMA ribbon will get. The wider the EMA ribbon gets, the harder it will be for price to pierce the ribbon and break out to the upside. The significance of this is that a wide and inverted EMA ribbon on the weekly chart makes a sharp V-shaped recovery less likely. This is because when the EMA ribbon is wide, each moving average will individually pose a challenge to price action more so than if all the moving averages are converged at nearly the same level. Although the current situation differs in many ways from the Great Recession. Look below at how similar the weekly charts appear. Another chart that has me concerned about a potential capitulation event is the weekly chart for the tech short derivative chart (SQQQ). As many of you know, when the price of tech stocks in the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) moves down, SQQQ moves up. SQQQ is an important chart to consider because it reflects the extent to which retail traders are bearish on tech stocks. Right now, SQQQ's chart is particularly precarious and primed for a capitulation event because price fell to then bounced off of converged moving averages. If we zoom out to view the entire price history of SQQQ we can see that its price rarely rises above the weekly EMA ribbon except during capitulation events, thus indicating that we are dealing with unprecedented bearishness of interest-rate-sensitive tech stocks. For the tech bulls to prevail, SQQQ's price must fall below the EMA ribbon. Whereas if a capitulation event occurs, the Nasdaq 100 stocks can experience a rapid and significant decline back down to their pre-pandemic highs, as shown below. This could mean that as a ratio to the money supply, the Nasdaq 100 goes all the way back to the March 2020 bottom, thereby wiping out all the wealth that investing in tech stocks created since the pandemic began. To see why the money supply can be used in this manner, you can check out my post here: Stage of the Economic Cycle Since the 10Y/2Y yield curve remains inverted we are in the late stage of an economic cycle. Below is a chart of how each sector typically performs during this stage. Credit: Fidelity Investments We are most likely in Stage 6 of the economic cycle as shown below because stock, bonds, and commodities have all been declining to some degree in the past several months and because the yield curve is inverted. Once the yield curve inverts, economic contraction will subsequently occur. Although the general trend of all assets is down during Stage 6 there can still be rallies before contraction takes hold. Credit: StockCharts.com Yearly Chart When analyzed on the yearly chart, the S&P 500's current price action looks analogous to the Early 2000s Recession, as shown below. Following the Early 2000s recession, it took over 12 years for the stock market to sustain new all-time highs. Although anything is possible, unfortunately the current situation is looking similar. Bonds This chart is a ratio of the S&P 500 (SPX) relative to the price of iShares 20 Plus Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). The regression channel gives us a very interesting piece of insight. It could suggest that the S&P 500 is nowhere near its bottom yet. Since TLT's price drops when bond yields go up, this ratio chart suggests that for the current yield on risk-free long-dated government bonds, the S&P 500 could be way overpriced still. The higher the yields on government bonds rise, the more likely it is that capital will flow out of the stock market and into bonds. As shown below, the higher timeframe oscillators suggest this may be the case. Yield Curve Inversion The current yield curve inversion (as measured as a ratio between the 10-year vs. 2-year U.S. Treasuries) is the most extreme on record. This inversion is flashing a major recession warning. Emerging Markets Here's one investment idea that always works... Please leave a comment if you find an error in my analysis above or if you'd otherwise like to share your thoughts. Thank you. If you'd like to plot the weekly and daily expected moves for SPY on your chart, try the indicator "SPY Expected Move by VIX", which is calculated from the VIX rather than from the implied volatility of the options chain. The quarterly expected moves that I've posted above were calculated using options chain data. If you'd like to learn how to calculate the expected move yourself, this video can help: www.youtube.com
SP:SPX
by SpyMasterTrades
38
Is The Bear Making You Sick? Time To Get Right With Healthcare!Bear markets, economic slow downs, recessions, inflation, the Fed, Jerome Powel, etc... It's enough to make anyone feel sick. Well, step right into the Doctors office because I have the cure for what is making you ill. But before I start writing prescriptions, we need to apply a diagnosis. First let us review the causes: Soaring Commodities. Crashing Growth. Incoming Recession. As this bug works its way through your system its going to manifest itself with several symptoms. Currently you're experiencing the following: Inflation. Bear Market. Rising Rates. As your natural immune system fights this off, you're going to experience the following side effects: Deflation. Decreased Earnings. Falling Rates. None of this is going to make you feel any better however. That's where the Doctor comes in. Allow me to explain. As the economy slows down we're going to experience cyclicals such as Semi's continuing their weakness and the Commodities will be rolling over. But the rising rates will crimp economic growth which will weaken earnings and put pressure on valuations. Eventually the FED will be forced to slow or stop their rate raising program as the economy grinds to a halt. This will hurt investors looking for yield. Not a great scenario for stocks. What's a sick investor to do? You need alpha, yield, and protection from an economic slowdown. There's only one sector that can offer all three and that is Healthcare. Healthcare is relatively resistant to any slow down in the economy, offers some yield in $XLV and some alpha in $XBI. Both charts are ratio charts comparing the relative strength of Healthcare vs Semi's and Commodities. The top chart is a monthly candle chart of $XLV the S&P Healthcare SPDR ETF vs $DBC The Broad Commodity ETF. The ratio rises when $XLV is out performing and falls when its under performing. As you can see the ratio is sitting right on an area of support and a hammer candle has formed after a protracted period of under performance. Implications are for a reversal that favors $XLV. The bottom chart is a weekly line chart of $XBI the S&P Biotech ETF vs $SOXX the Philly Semiconductor ETF. Just like the above chart, the ratio rises as $XBI out performs and falls when it under performs. Just recently $XBI has reversed the trend of under performance and broke out through the downward trend line. The trend favors further out performance from $XBI. I hereby prescribe to you the following pairs trades: Long $XLV and Short $DBC. Long $XBI and Short $SOXX. Please start the prescription as soon as you can have it filled and keep the trade on for the rest of the year until January 1st 2023. Come back to see me for a follow up visit. Please make your appointment ahead of time as I book up fast. I hope you feel better soon. Sincerely, your Doctor.
AMEX:XLV
by Breakout_Charts
33
Growth vs Value. Technology vs Energy.While these two charts aren't the same, they are very similar. The top chart is a ratio chart of ARKK vs Berk.B. The bottom chart is a ratio chart of Tech vs Energy. If the top chart is any indication of the overall trend, then there's plenty of upside in energy still. The downside of ARKK vs BERK.B overshot the minimum downside target. This is a logical area for a bounce. The Tech vs Energy ratio looks to have a ways to go still. These rounded tops are very dependable reversal patterns. Keep your eye open for broken support lines when watching these rounded tops play out.
AMEX:XLKLong
by Breakout_Charts
Growth vs. Value: Skating to Where the Puck Will BeHockey legend Wayne Gretsky famously said: "Skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been." This sometimes applies in investing and trading. Towards what object have investors been skating, figuratively speaking? Currently, financial media, fund managers, and commentators have been emphasizing the opportunities in value over growth for several months. And for good reason: Energy, a value / cyclical sector unloved for about a decade, has outperformed every other sector this year by a huge margin. It has risen by approximately 20.5% since January 1, 2022. Even it's uptrend channel could not contain it (although it looks to be consolidating at the moment or perhaps mean-reverting). Increasingly, market participants have been "skating" towards value areas and away from growth for over a year now, as anyone who has been burned by long trades in tech / disruptive innovation knows. For example, a spread chart (also called a ratio chart) of ARKK/SPY shows just how dramatically growth has struggled. ARKK is a well-known US ETF containing high-beta stocks typically categorized as disruptive-innovation stocks, i.e., high growth names. This chart evidences just how much growth has struggled vs. the S&P 500. Notice, though, how this spread chart shows how close to major, long-term support the ratio has moved. Examples abound of high-growth names having been crushed in powerful bear markets in those names. Some of them are even top names with innovative products and services and an impressive record of earnings / sales growth: Square ( NYSE:SQ ) has declined about -68% from all-time highs, Upstart ( NASDAQ:UPST ) fell about -81% from its high to its low in late January 2022, and ( Roku ) dropped about 78% from its peaks. Even large cap tech not gone unscathed: Facebook NASDAQ:FB suffered a nearly -50% decline after a huge earnings / guidance disappointment. But in general, large-cap tech has been the exception in growth until the selloff this year. While growth / tech in general has struggled for months, large-cap tech names such as GOOGL, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA have outperformed. Even AMZN's sideways move for about a year should be considered outperformance relative to other high-growth names as shown by the ARKK chart above: see the chart below, which is a relative chart of AMZN vs. ARKK, revealing that even with AMZN's lengthy sideways move, it has dramatically outperformed growth / tech names more generally. Markets are in constant flux. So often, just when the little people (retail traders like me) take notice of a powerful new trend or outperformance, it ends. So I'm trying to watch for where markets are moving rather than focusing on where they are. In short, is growth bottoming out relative to value? Here are a few charts to consider. 1. The main weekly chart above (also copied below) is a spread chart showing the ratio of NASDAQ:IJT (small-cap growth) vs. small cap value. Notice how close to major long-term up trendline support the ratio has moved. And the weekly ratio is also right at support at March 2021 and May-June 2021 lows. The RSI for this relative chart also shows that it's oversold to 33.65, a level that only appears in multi-month (and often multi-year) intervals. Even the two RSI lows in 1H 2021 occurred 2 months apart, but this is the exception looking back longer term. 2. Large-cap growth is right at support at a long-term uptrend line. See the weekly spread chart of the ratio between XLK/SPY. AMEX:XLK is a US ETF that is heavily weighted towards large-cap tech. 3. Equal-weighted growth vs. equal-weighted tech RYG/RPV is also very close to long-term upward trendline support. 4. Interest rates are nearing long-term downtrend channel resistance—at the upper line (the actual downtrend line). Interest rates have soared powerfully since mid-2020, and the Federal Reserve has hawkishly signaled coming rate hikes, and market participants have behaved as though rates will keep on going to the moon—by selling tech / growth, which struggle when rates rise b/c of discounting of future cash flows used to value such names. The viewpoint that rates could turn around in the near future seems radical, contrarian and unreasonable. But consider this chart below. Could rates turn around just after a large move just after millions of market participants have been flocking towards value names that outperform in rising-rate environments? Some well-known experts have already taken this view. www.cnbc.com It seems priced into the market right now that the 10-year yield could continue rising, that the interest rates could even breakout higher above long-term downtrend resistance, and that the Fed is likely behind the curve in controlling inflation. It seems consensus that value could continue to outperform long-term, and that growth could break even long-term support levels and continue to plummet. But if this is priced into the market, shouldn't one consider buying what's already priced in? Especially because maybe what is priced into the market will not last. Thinking about where the "puck is going to be" may suggest that tech / growth is making a multi-month or multi-year low or that interest rates are going to pullback in the next few months, allowing tech to thrive again.
NASDAQ:IJT
by SquishTrade
4
MQP IRL CONTINUOUS DEMO 12P - EXIT STRATEGY HEADER - It's going to be tomorrow if early 3/2, 3/3 is still a tad bit early, 3/4 in the morning most likely, 3/7 if late, 3/8 if a drag. That covers all bases. The yellow highlight is most likely path. Blue highlight is bc post 3/3 still subject to change. PLEASE LIKE FOR SUPPORT. IRL RATIOS: Chart above is ratio 9/16 for 30-min bar (zoom-able for 15min, 30min, 1h, 2H , 4H, 8H). If you have custom bars, use ratio 9/17 for 32-min bar (zoom-able for 1-, 2-, 4-, 8-, 16- 32, 64-, and 128-min bars; have not tested for 256- and so on...) DIRECTIONS - Upload IRL from my scripts page because it can NOT be searched for. Add to your favorites, and then you can add it to your chart. Click settings icon, change ratio to stated ratio above and turn on Regressive Bands (if you want). Even though directions for IRL are only 60% completed (they are in the comments for that script), that's more than enough for you to apply it usefully. Please read directions first. In my charts, I try to match extension regression lines to its correct colors along with D+# labels. When I don't have time for that, D+# LABELS ALWAYS TAKE PRECEDENT. SUMMARY - Please read last several posts if you are new for background. Post 12O, the most recent, has CRITICAL DETAILS posted just today. To sum it up, time to exit is next 4 trading days, let's get it right. DETAILS - Broke up like we wanted, now let's finish like a boss. First of all, ALL SIGNS POINT TO TOMORROW BEING "A" HIGH, NOT "THE" HIGH. The only exception if we can tag 2030+ THEN TAKE THE MONEY AND WAIT FOR A TACTICAL SHORT AT 2060+/-10. Otherwise, my strategy is to EXIT THE FIRST RED BOX TOMORROW MORNING. WHY? There are two fed speakers in the morning after ADP and POWELL talks to congress at 10 AM ET. That's too much room for bad things to happen. Plus we've been long since under 1800, 2000 exit cannot be bad. If price can't clear 2030 (especially if it's 2010 OR LESS), the pullback should be 1960, THIS IS LIKELY TO BE A STRONG TACTICAL LONG TO 2070. I can't figure out when THE TOP is right now. It's looking like 3/03 PM TO 3/08 AM, so Thursday night to NEXT Tuesday morning. ANY THING ABOVE 2060 WILL BE EXCELLENT TACTICAL SHORT FOR 150 PTS IN 5 TRADING DAYS OR LESS. NOTES - Good luck with this. Hope I've made it somewhat worthwhile of your time.
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by Binary_Forecasting_Service
3
Metals & Miners Leading S&PThe metals and mining industry is performing solidly on both an absolute and relative basis. This chart depicts the trend in relative strength of the S&P Metals & Mining ETF against the S&P 500 benchmark index. $XME/SPY - the relative ratio chart is showing five strong weeks of relative gains. Interestingly, the ratio is above prior resistance on strong blue "Go" trend conditions. And, GoNoGo Oscillator has rallied positive after months of indecision at the zero-line on heavy volume. Here's the checklist: 1) Trend is a "Go" (uptrend) 2) Momentum confirming price action 3) Volume confirming the positive momentum Better Charts. Better Decisions. GoNoGo Charts
AMEX:XMELong
by TylerWood2020
1
MQP 12L - ABOUT TIME MQP MAKE YOU REAL MONEY PART 6HEADER - If I could choose one moment in my life to bet on, it is one. I've made no secret that I've been all-in since February 1st. If you are still not in, it's not too late. This thing is not going to take a break until clear 2025 or higher. IRL RATIOS: Chart above is ratio 9/16 for 30-min bar (zoom-able for 15min, 30min, 1h, 2H , 4H, 8H). If you have custom bars, use ratio 9/17 for 32-min bar (zoom-able for 1-, 2-, 4-, 8-, 16- 32, 64-, and 128-min bars; have not tested for 256- and so on...) DIRECTIONS - Upload IRL from my scripts page because it can NOT be searched for. Add to your favorites, and then you can add it to your chart. Click settings icon, change ratio to stated ratio above and turn on Regressive Bands (if you want). Even though directions for IRL are only 60% completed (they are in the comments for that script), that's more than enough for you to apply it usefully. Please read directions first. In my charts, I try to match extension regression lines to its correct colors along with D+# labels. When I don't have time for that, D+# LABELS ALWAYS TAKE PRECEDENT. SUMMARY - This is it. This is the moment. This is the time to be long gold. DETAILS - This chart is focus on D10, D11, D12 and D13 which are 6-day, 3-day, 36H and 18H regressive curve waves. The highlighted path should nail this one like college freshman.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by Binary_Forecasting_Service
4
JNK/TLT and BTC plotI was watching a video by "Game of Trades" dated August 31, 2021. He went over a JNK/TLT chart. I HIGHLY recommend it! It was the first time I had ever seen this chart. The shape at the end caught my eye. I thought, hmm. That looks a bit like the BTC (BLX) correction pattern. So I first drew a JNK/TLT chart then put the black tendency line at the JNK/TLT tops. Then I added BTC to the chart. Then I added the curved historical tendency lines to the BTC chart. Plus I added a blue 4 year cycle theory linear line to the BTC chart. I'm not a 4 year market cycle theory person, but I included it for those who are. Black line (on BTC) - historical curved tendency line Blue line (on BTC) - 4 year market cycle theory line I added vertical solid lines on the JNK/TLT chart at ratio highs and lows and drew them up into the BTC chart. Vertical dotted lines indicate other significant pivot points in the JNK/TLT ratio chart. JNK = SPDR Bloomberg Barclays High Yield BOND ETF TLT = ISHARES 20+ Treasury Bond ETH Vertical solid red lines - Ratio at a low Vertical solid green lines - Ratio at a high The idea is when the market is taking on risk, the JNK/TLT ratio goes up. When the market is decreasing risk seeking safety, the ratio goes down. And the chart is a plot of this ratio. As I mentioned above, on the BTC (BLX) chart I put the black historical curved tendency lines. Plus I put the blue linear (4 year market cycle theory) line for those who believe in this. Why? I think the JNK/TLT line offers another way to help determine that the top is in for BTC. So, no matter what theory you hold to, you can test it as the market matures. Nobody wants to get caught wrong footed stubbornly holding to a target price (including myself) based on theories and tendency beliefs, whichever they may be. **CONCLUSIONS** **1)** BTC up/down tendency seems to trend with the JNK/TLT ratio. This makes sense. If a market is taking on risk, well that is good for crypto. **2)** The JNK/TLT ratio tops, bottoms, and pivots sometimes correlate with the BTC chart, but only sometimes. There were some bullseyes at times. **3)** The tendency line of the JNK/TLT ratio tops may offer another crypto top indicator. So keep an eye simultaneously to whatever belief you have for your BTC target price. If the JNK/TLT ratio touches the tendency line - watch out.
AMEX:JNKLong
by gz1968
1
SILVER - The ShiningSilver intermediate cycle bottomed with gold on the 30th November. Silver didn't have that serious decline at the end of the last intermediate cycle like gold. Notice that we were in a consolidation box for 4 months and today we broke out. Is it too late to enter the party? No. We are still early in this game and I think silver will run to 42 and maybe to 50 in the following 3-4 months. I've already posted my thoughts regarding the XAUXAG ratio: If you are looking for targets in silver I suggest to read the idea above . If you are not in a position yet I would wait for a backtest of the consolidation box at 26.00$. If you already in a position I would increase the position size at 26$. We have a lot of time in this trade before we have to worry about a top. TSI is just turning up and RSI just reached the overbought territory. RSI can stay overbought for a month or more just like last summer. I will set this idea as a long idea as we broke out of the box but I would wait for a backtest at 26$ before entering.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by chartwatchers
8
XRP/BTC Update - Altcoin Season is ComingHey traders, today we're looking at XRP/BTC ratio chart. First off, it's pretty obvious that an altcoin season is underway. The Bitcoin dominance has peaked at around 72% and is having a hard time breaking back over support at 69. Meanwhile, all of the alts have slowly but surely been gaining satoshi value, and that isn't just going to reverse anytime soon. Take a look at the 1st and 2nd wick on this chart, those wicks marked the absolute bottom of the market. It's delusional to think we're going back down there. XRP/BTC has also regained support of it's long term uptrend stending from ALL of the previous altcoin season run-ups. The wedge I drew is basically just a resistance line at 3292 sats , confirmed uptrend from the 2nd wick. Just take a look at how the candlesticks interact with all of the lines I drew, trading really is just clockwork. The big orange candle that wicked down below the long-term trendline, 3054 sat support, and the 3292 sat wedge is not something to take lightly. That is one of the craziest moves i've seen charting. XRP/BTC isn't going to dip farther than this, as of now it looks like its holding 3054 sats very well and consolidating. Going into the month of November, we should continue to see accumulation around this region of 3054-3292 sats, until we inevitably break upwards. XRP/BTC is a very easy altcoin to trade, its actually my favorite besides BAT and ZRX to make money. This is one of the most volatile altcoins with the most volume on all exchanges. I personally like Binance, just because of the simplicity. Like I could be on the toilet and make a trade directly from my phone using their app. If you live outside of the US, I suggest joining my signal group and creating a Binance account so you can make money with me. NEW Trading Group: t.me NEW Signal Group: t.me Binance Sign-Up: www.binance.com As always do your own research, I am not a financial advisor.
Long
by kyer
1